Survey & Results
2002
NASA-NWS Joint Symposium on Short-Term Forecasting and the Convective
Weather Warning Process
Participant Survey
The
organizers of the symposium have created this survey to gauge
the interest level, concerns and needs of the participants. We
would very much like everyone to fill out this survey, as your
responses may be critical in determining the direction of future
collaborative activities. Thank you for your time and effort
in filling out this survey.
Affiliation:
|
NASA
___ |
Media
___ |
University
___ |
|
Emergency
Management ___ |
NWS
(Operations) ___ |
NWS
(HQ) ___ |
|
Other
(please specify) ___ |
|
|
1.
From your perspective, what do you see as the top 5 short-term
(0-12 hour) forecast issues affecting your area or constituency?
(i.e., convective initiation timing, forecasting mode of convection,
better precipitation forecasts, improved aviation forecasts,
etc.)
2.
What types of products, services or data sets (i.e., satellite,
radar, NWP, etc.) do you currently utilize to address the issues
listed above?
3.
How do you envision that these current products and services
could be improved to better meet your needs?
4.
Are there certain problems or issues that affect your local planning
and operations that you feel are not adequately addressed by
NWS products or services? (i.e., excessive lightning deaths,
accurate wintertime model QPF, onset of wintertime precip, etc.)
5.
What type(s) of new products, services, or data sets would you
like to see developed in the future to address your local planning
or operations? (i.e., higher resolution NWP or satellite data,
lightning warnings, etc.)
6.
How do you (or can you) see the research and academia community
better helping to address these issues?
7.
How are you currently introduced or exposed to new products,
services, or datasets? (Examples...publications, conferences,
memos, "word of mouth")
8.
From your perspective, how could you be better introduced to
those products, services or data sets?
9.
As end users, would like you like to see more detailed verification
information? If so, what type? (Ex. verification by convective
regime, storm type - MCS, supercell, etc., model versus model,
forecast vs model, etc.)
10.
Satellite data is generally underutilized. What factor(s) do
you feel limit its utility (data access, scientific understanding,
training limitations). From what you hear about available satellite
date from SpoRT, what do you see as most useful?
11.
What one element or issue does the NWS need to address in order
to increase warning lead times and decrease false alarm ratios?
(i.e. additional WES training, science training, better spotter
network)
RESULTS
Affiliation (number that responded):
NASA - 0
University - 0
Media - 1 (5.9%)
Emergency Management - 1 (5.9%)
NWS (Operations) - 12 (70.6%)
NWS (HQ) - 0
Others:
FAA - 1 (5.9%)
Gov't Lab - 1 (5.9%)
NOAA/OAR/FSL - 1 (5.9%)
1. From your perspective, what do you
see as the top 5 short-term (0-12 hour) forecast issues affecting
your area or constituency? (i.e., convective initiation timing,
forecasting mode of convection, better precipitation forecasts,
improved aviation forecasts, etc.)
(10) Convective initiation -
improve warning lead times - utilize environmental winds and
temps
(9) Accurate QPF forecasts - better training
(9) Convective forecasts - evolution
of existing storms - storm type
(7) Improved aviation forecasts
- timing of convection - verification programs that provide feedback
quickly to forecasters - also program that takes into account
consistency with zone forecasts
(7) Cloud forecasts - fog forecasts
- ceiling and visibility forecasts in the 0-6 hour period
(6) Better short-term modeling
(RUC/MesoEta/MM5) - local data sets, modeling, ensembles - diabatic
initialization (to eliminate spin-up time)
(6) Precip type forecasting
(4) Forecasting max QPF (point
and/or areal) for an event - better training
(3) Onset/timing of sensible
weather (i.e. When is the snow going to begin?)
(3) Low level winds and temperatures
structure (PBL)
(2) Better sounding data available
(2) Short-term lightning forecasts
- flash density distribution (include onset and ending)
(2) Improved visualization of
forecast information - ability to depict forecast information
in high resolution gridded format
(1) Thunderstorms along coast
killing a line of convection in northern AL
(1) Conditions in NE AL (need
mesonet data)
(1) Storm reports from MS are
often relayed too late
(1) Getting the word out to the
users concerning the suite of products we issue
(1) Better communication with
spotters - getting spotters to be active in calling in reports
(1) Better quality controlled
data
(1) More real-time hourly precipitation
reports to support radar estimates
(1) Unexpected elevated convection
(1) Forecaster complacency -
think nothing will happen
(1) Issuing Flash Flood warnings
- not pro-active enough - waits until flooding already ongoing
(1) Boundary forcing - surface
winds, frontal positions
(1) Forestry needs
(1) Higher POD for severe weather/tornado
warnings
(1) Lower FAR - but not at expense
of POD
(1) Improved operational implementation
of proven research/development
2. What types of products, services or
data sets (i.e., satellite, radar, NWP, etc.) do you currently
utilize to address the issues listed above?
(17) 88D (and other ) radar data
- terminal Doppler - FAA radar
(14) Satellite - primarily GOES
(12) NCEP Models
(5) LAPS
(5) MSAS
(5) Local Model data (MM5)
(3) Surface observations - and
supplemental surface data (FAA tower, forestry obs)
(2) Sounding model data
(1) ADAS
(1) Lightning
(1) LDAR
(1) LISDAD
(1) WDSS
(1) ITWS
(1) NOGAPS model data
(1) ECMWF model data
(1) Isentropic analysis
(1) Boundary layer analysis
(1) Local training
(1) Ham radio
(1) COOP data
(1) ASOS
(1) Profiler data
(1) Aircraft reports/Pireps
(1) Office coordination
(1) SCAN
(1) IFPS/WWA
3. How do you envision that these current
products and services could be improved to better meet your needs?
(7) Real-time access to all available
satellite (AMSU, MODIS, others), radar level II data, sounding
data, and other remote sensing data
(4) Aggressive training, seminars,
workshops, and utilizing the "x" shifts to improve
forecaster understanding, WES training
(4) Increased computer processing
- hardware upgrades - allowing for higher resolution model data
transfer
(4) Integrating next-generation
datasets (MODIS, high resolution models, lightning data, etc.)
into AWIPS
(2) Operational based lightning
detection software - total lightning data
(1) SPoRT should leverage local/mesoscale
expertise and ways to build and support it:
- techniques to forecast 0-2 hours
- techniques to forecast 2-24 hours
- defining significant wx, hazardous wx, record wx, high profile
events, etc. at anytime through 7,10,15 days
(1) More local data (satellite,
mesonet, etc) into mesoscale models
(1) Research, research and research
(1) Models explicitly forecasting
convection - eventually
(1) Radar polarization diversity
(1) Increased resolution in new
NASA satellites (such as MODIS)
(1) Increased boundary layer
vertical temperature and humidity profiles
(1) Deterministic product might
be more useful format for keeping EMA and public aware during
threatening weather conditions
(1) Cooperation between NWS and
non-NWS met groups
(1) More input to model initialization
- more real, current data ingest
(1) National boundary analysis
- as proposed by SPC
(1) Autonowcaster software available
across region
4. Are there certain problems or issues
that affect your local planning and operations that you feel
are not adequately addressed by NWS products or services? (i.e.,
excessive lightning deaths, accurate wintertime model QPF, onset
of wintertime precip, etc.)
(3) Onset/timing of precip and
accurate wintertime model QPF
(3) Lightning forecasts and/or
warnings/advisories
(2) Max QPF forecast for heavy
precip events
(1) Sky and cloud forecasts for
aviation must be improved
(1) Putting lightning data into
NWP - the inclusion of total-lightning info is a wide open field
and must be pursued
(1) 0-6 hour forecasting of convection
(initiation and mode)
(1) Better boundary layer temperature
schemes, winds, etc. - especially during winter wx
(1) More enhanced LAPS, MSAS,
LAMP guidance during convective events
(1) More model runs
(1) QPF forecasting
(1) Not enough fine scale information
or forecasts (fire weather/operations)
(1) Difficulty in doing terminal
and enroute aviation forecasts - need more guidance - maybe explicit
cloud forecasts
(1) Aviation hazards
(1) Coordination with all regional
offices during winter weather (from media)
(1) Pulse type severe storms
(more timely warnings)
(1) Need increase network of
hourly precipitation gages
(1) Not always as much heads-up
to the public and officials as there used to be in NWS products
(special weather statements, etc.)
(1) Dense fog/forecasting along
waterways
(1) Freezing drizzle
(1) Poor TAF forecasting
(1) Inadequate resolution of
surface analysis data in the CWA
(1) Still working to help reduce
forecast errors - precip type and amounts
5. What type(s) of new products, services,
or data sets would you like to see developed in the future to
address your local planning or operations? (i.e., higher resolution
NWP or satellite data, lightning warnings, etc.)
(9) Higher resolution and wider
range of satellite data (MODIS, TRMM, microwave)
(8) High resolution model data
(local modeling), non-hydrostatic models
(4) Lightning warnings and/or
forecasts/advisories
(3) Level II radar from many
radars in region
(2) Graphical HWO - out to 48
hours
(1) National implementation of
products like the significant weather alert short term forecast
product
(1) A product that tells EMA/Law
Enforcement that weather has developed, currently is below severe
thresholds, but still can be hazard to the public
(1) Threat assessment based tornado
warnings - different levels (level 1 - level 2) for expected
intensity or threat threshold
(1) Highly accurate, high resolution
NWP data - non-hydrostatic runs at 2 or 3 km
(1) Local/regional smart initialization
and smart tools for GFE to enhance graphical/digital forecasts
(1) Increase network of hourly
precipitation gauges
(1) Hot-start approach to NWP
model initializations
(1) Updraft max flux derived
product
(1) Broadcast live on NWR during
severe weather
(1) Recreational forecast
(1) Forecasting training
(1) Lightning specific statements
in a SPS (where lightning category is in the header)
(1) Integrated graphical products
tailored to the aviation community (cloud heights, tops, freezing
level)
(1) Additional products or services
that speak to the protection of life and property
(1) Would like to see a new facility
take day to day forecasts and leverage them for economic interests
(DOC)
6. How do you (or can you) see the research
and academia community better helping to address these issues?
(1) Utilize lighting technology
and research to provide NWS better ways to warn the public of
dangers of lightning
(1) Meet users in aviation community
to help us improve aviation forecasts
(1) Providing research funds
and resources not available in NWS budget
(1) Porting cutting edge methodology
to field forecasters
(1) Providing verification and
track history to new data sets
(1) Assisting in local office
training/seminars
(1) Participating in local research/studies/climatology
- they have man power to assist
(1) Push for more real-time observations
into the models
(1) Research into non-supercell
tornadogenesis
(1) Research and academia need
to understand end user requirements for information
(1) Government and private agencies
should collaborate to address issues
(1) Ensure a link between operational
planning and research community
(1) Have a funded process to
allow researchers to work on operational priorities - initiatives
from multi-agencies
(1) Create a test bed process
to bring research to operations
(1) Ensure operational buy-in
and commitment for successful test-bed developments
(1) Getting research findings
(that can help the operational community), especially dealing
with severe convection, into their hands ASAP.
(1) Integration on new data sets
into AWIPS
(1) Direct and open communications
between operational forecasters and the research/academia community
(1) Outline of conferences and
meetings between the NWS and research community to foster and
continue lines of communication
(1) Listening to the input from
the operational forecasters (like this workshop)
(1) Understanding that data must
be available as consistently as possible, and as near real-time
as possible
(1) Research/academia need to
work with operational people to discern their needs and develop
plans accordingly (as is being done with SPoRT)
(1) They must operate in the
operation context - science/technology transfer must be end to
end
(1) Must facilitate the WFO to
continually and naturally improve their mesoscale expertise
7. How are you currently introduced or
exposed to new products, services, or datasets? (Examples...publications,
conferences, memos, "word of mouth")
(14) Conferences - need more
of the these
(8) Reading research publications/literature
(9) Word of mouth discussions
(7) Memorandums - from SOOs,
national centers
(4) Web search - WX-TALK discussions
(4) Local training - SOO, seminars
etc.
(2) Resident training - NWSTC,
FSL, etc.
(1) Professional relationships
- AMU/KSC, 45th WS, SMG, NWS/MLB participate in an annual Technical
Interchange Meeting (self initiated)
(1) Conference publications
(1) Teletraining
(1) Need better NWS regional
communications on the new technologies available
8. From your perspective, how could you
be better introduced to those products, services or data sets?
(4) Continue conferences and face-to-face training and familiarization
(3) Aggressive training from
the SOO - must train more effectively - training on model physics
and interpretation
(2) Keep a master web site registry
for sites that have the information with links
(2) Training web pages created
by folks who really understand the new data sets and technology
- administered by a group like NCEP or NASA
(2) An email listserver like
WX-TALK, but with a more defined focus
(1) Real-time collaboration
(1) Diversity of insights (not
just one office or a few offices)
(1) Technical Interchange Meetings
(1) More regional SOO meetings
(1) More interaction with research
and academia community
(1) More training opportunities
like NWSTC resident courses.
(1) Provide local SOOs with latest
technology advances and information
(1) Provide local focal points
with best training possible, so they can relay training to other
forecasters.
(1) New technology advances and
research should be shared with forecasters
(1) Sending an operation forecaster
TDY to work with the researches and developers
9. As end
users, would like you like to see more detailed verification
information? If so, what type? (Ex. verification by convective
regime, storm type - MCS, supercell, etc., model versus model,
forecast vs model, etc.)
(4) Model versus model verification
(3) Would like to see verification
and forecast reviews by weather regime (man power and data limitations
would be issues)
(4) Verification by convective
regimes
(2) Enhanced verification in
near real-time on AWIPS workstations
HPC versus model verification
(2) Current verification information
is sufficient
(2) More "user friendly"
aviation verification program - including consistency checks
(2) With the advent of NDFD,
would like to see the verification of sensible weather elements
(forecast and model derived) posted to the web - learn situational
biases
(2) Storm type versus model progs
(2) Would like to see verifications
stats on temps, precip, forecaster versus the model
(2) Forecast/warning biases and
verification - for example, do we do better with LEWP events
than multicell events
(1) Bias and limitation study
of the models
(1) Ensemble forecasts stats
(1) Verification should assess
the "value" of the actual forecast - our gridded products
should look like the high resolution analyses
(1) Determining "value-added"
of automated and human-generated input to forecasts
10. Satellite
data is generally underutilized. What factor(s) do you feel limit
its utility (data access, scientific understanding, training
limitations). From what you hear about available satellite date
from SpoRT, what do you see as most useful?
Reasons for being underutilized:
(9) Data access - not integrated
into AWIPS - field offices left out of the loop
(8) Scientific and training limitations
(7) Timeliness of data
(2) General lack of "off
the shelf" product - need to convert data into user-level
format (products)
(1) Lack of good satellite enhancement
curves, especially for fog and stratus
What do you see as most useful?
(3) MODIS - 1 km - detecting
boundaries and convection initiation
(2) Satellite data to support
hourly radar estimates of precipitation
(1) High resolution soundings
- especially good vertical resolution
11. What
one element or issue does the NWS need to address in order to
increase warning lead times and decrease false alarm ratios?
(i.e. additional WES training, science training, better spotter
network)
(6) Mesoscale training - like
flight event simulator for pilots, WES training
(3) Better spotter network -
be active in pursuing ground truth
(2) Additional science training
including local seminars and training sessions
(2) Additional data - wind profilers,
more real-time surface observations
(1) High resolution (spatial/temporal)
mesoscale model data
(1) Tornadogenesis research leading
to much higher density network of radars nationwide
(1) Boundary layer research.
(1) Better access to upper air
data for media
(1) To advance warning lead times,
next generation algorithms that utilize environmental information
(shears, clouds, stability, boundaries, vorticity, etc.) must
be developed. The role of data assimilation and NWP at the local
level will be essential.
(1) The NWS needs a sociological
project to find the optimum lead time and the actual role of
FAR in reducing public response before investing tremendous resources
on these issues.
(1) The NWS needs a thorough
warning verification study of the SE - concentrate on situational
warning verification - by meteorology/storm type and magnitude
|
