Lightning Forecast Algorithm (LFA) Product
The Lightning Forecast Algorithm (LFA) is a demonstration product for use in the GOES-R Proving Ground to develop model proxy fields of total lightning that could be used in future data assimilation applications of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. Since the initial journal publication in 2009, the LFA has been implemented into the NSSL WRF 4-km daily model runs beginning in Spring 2010, and was incorporated into the Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast runs for the 2011 Experimental Forecast Program in Norman, Oklahoma. The LFA is also being run within the High Resolution Rapid Refresh at the Global Systems Division in Boulder, CO.
For more information, see the LFA Overview at the bottom of this page.
LFA Overview
A Lightning Forecast Algorithm (LFA) has been developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to predict total lightning flash rate densities based on the model simulated microphysics and convective storm kinematics. One of the primary goals in developing the LFA is to establish model proxy fields that could be used in future data assimilation applications of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard GOES-R. The two model proxies used in the development of the LFA is the graupel flux at -15°C (GFX) and vertically integrated ice (VII). The GFX proxy captures the time variability in lightning activity whereas the VII proxy best depicts the spatial coverage of total lightning, especially within anvil regions. The two model proxies are blended into a single lightning threat field that captures both the time and spatial attributes of the total lightning activity. These model proxies have been calibrated against observations of total lightning flash rate densities from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) for select training cases that span a variety of convective modes. The LFA provides a realistic depiction of the total lightning character on a given day, but is limited by the accuracy of simulated convection in the model.
