Short-term Prediction Research
and Transition Center

Programmatic Activities:

General:

New research scientist: - Mr Brad Zavodsky, a recent graduate of the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) and student of Dr. Steve Lazarus, joined the SPoRT team as a UAH Research Associate. Brad will assist in the analysis of AIRS and MODIS data and contribute to the ongoing WRF data assimilation efforts.

Publications:

Peer Review: A manuscript by Gary Jedlovec, Stephanie Haines, and U. Nair entitled “Tornado damage track assessment with NASA EOS Data“ has been conditionally accepted for publication in Weather and Forecasting. The article describes the use of near real-time MODIS and ASTER data to identify damage tracks from tornadic storms.

Conference Papers and Presentations:

• 13^th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography – 7 papers
• 1^st Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data – 9 papers
• 19^th Conf. on Hydrology – 1 paper
• Ninth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) – 1 paper
• 22^nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms – 1 paper

Visitors --

• Steven Lazarus, from the Florida Institute of Technology, Department of Marine and Environmental Systems visited SPoRT to discuss a collaborative MODIS SST assimilation project.
  
  
• Bill Proenza, Director of NWS Southern Region Headquarters was briefed during a visit to HUN on January 5.
  
  
• Joel Perez-Fernandez, research scientist at the Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC) located in the City of Knowledge, Panama, visited the SPoRT Center for a two month period. The purpose of the visit was to develop a real-time WRF-based modeling capability for Central America to be transitioned to CATHALAC later this year.
  
  
• Ed Johnson, Robert Venezia, Craig Peterson, and Terry McPherson from the Stennis Space Center Applied Sciences Directorate, were briefed during their trip to MSFC. As a result of the meeting, Ed Johnson suggested that both SPoRT and SERVIR operations provide excellent examples of Rapid Prototyping and that SSC Center Director Admiral Donaldson visit the labs in the near future.

Meetings --

• External Science Advisory Committee Meeting - The Committee gathered late last fall in Huntsville , AL for the third annual project review. Dr. Tsengdar Lee of the Science Mission Directorate represented NASA Headquarters. Progress reports in the areas of satellite/remote sensing, regional modeling and data assimilation, nowcasting, and assessments were presented at the meeting. The committee was pleased with the research conducted and partnerships formed with University and federal laboratories during FY04. (SAC presentations are on-line at http://wwwghcc.msfc.mnasa.gov/sport/sport_mission_documents.html)
  
  
• JCSDA Visit – Dr. Lapenta visited Dr. LeMarshall (Director) of the JCSDA to discuss the potential development of a SPoRT/JCSDA collaboration. Both parties agree there is much to learn about satellite DA at regional scales. Dr. LeMarshall has agreed to serve on the SAC replacing Al Powell of NOAA.
  
  
• NCEP Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Workshop - Three SPoRT team members attended the GSI workshop in Camp Spring MD at the invitation of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction on January 4-5, 2005. The GSI is the next-generation data assimilation system to be used at the NASA/NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. A major result of the meeting is that the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been granted access to the GSI system in preparation for regional assimilation of radiance data from the NASA Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) aboard the Aqua satellite. As a result, both SPoRT and the GSFC Global Model Assimilation Office will be using identical assimilation systems.
  
  
• LaTEST - A LaTEST (total Lightning Applications, Transition, Evaluation, Science, and Technology Demonstration) working group meeting was held at the AMS Annual Meeting since many of the key LaTEST participants were there. The purpose of the working groups meeting was to study the organizational structure of the LaTEST project. It was determined that LaTEST should be composed of three main working groups: 1) A group to investigate new operational lightning products for display on AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) workstations, 2) A group to examine the detection efficiency pattern of the VHF lightning mapping arrays, and 3) A group to identify a variety of case studies for use in WES (Weather Event Simulator) examples (these examples will be exchanged among project participants). A follow up LaTEST workshop is planned for the summer of 2005 in Dallas , TX .
  
  
• MODIS Science Team Meeting – Gary Jedlovec and Stephanie Haines were invited to the MODIS science team meeting to present the results of their recent work on the validation of the MODIS cloud mask. Fruitful discussions with MODIS atmospheric team members led to a better understanding of the EOS and NSSTC/GHCC MODIS cloud products.

Submitted Proposals --

• Proposal entitled “Weather Analysis and Prediction in Mesoamerica for Ecological Forecasting and Disaster Management” Jedlovec (PI) and Lapenta (Co-I), to NASA Decision Support through Earth Science Results CAN -Applied Sciences.
  
  
• Proposal entitled Use of Satellite Data to Improve the Physical Atmosphere in SIP Decision Making Models” – McNider (PI), Jedlovec (Co-I) and Lapenta (Co-I) to NASA Decision Support through Earth Science Results CAN -Applied Sciences.
  
  
• Proposal entitled “Use of MODIS SST to Improve High Resolution Modeling of Atmosphere/Ocean Interactions within the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Coastal Zones” submitted by Lapenta et al to NASA Project Columbia.
  
  
• Proposal entitled “Assimilation of AIRS Cloud-free Radiances for Improved Short-term Weather Forecasts” by Will McCarty UAH graduate student on SPoRT) to the NASA Earth System Science Fellowship Program.

Satellite Observations:

AIRS Data --
• A preliminary approach has been developed using the CO2 sorting technique to identify cloud contamination in AIRS channels. Accurate cloud-free AIRS radiances are important in variational studies that use the radiance information to improve regional weather forecasts. The sorting approach is more robust than the current technique which uses MODIS cloud mask and height data to pre-screen AIRS radiances.
  
  
• Level 2 data (temperature and moisture profiles) produced using the latest version of the AIRS retrieval code (V4.0) have been received from JPL for the January 14-15, 2004 case study. A preliminary evaluation of the profiles and quality flags indicate many changes from version 3.6 retrievals. Comparison to raob data, the V4.0 retrievals show significant improvement in the vertical structure of temperature and moisture from V3.6 retrievals (over land and water). These new retrievals are being used in data simulation with WRF (see below).
  

MODIS Imagery and Products
• Cloud Mask Validation – An accurate cloud mask is important to deriving useful atmospheric, surface, and cloud products from MODIS. Limitations of the EOS cloud mask for regional applications have been demonstrated over the last year. Cloud masks produced by the new Collection 5 algorithm have been evaluated and shown to have some improvements over the previous algorithm, particularly over the ocean at night. The SPoRT team continues to work with the MODIS science team on the evaluation and improvement of the cloud mask.
  
  
• Cloud mask product to FIT – The MODIS cloud mask product produced by MSFC/GHCC is being distributed in real-time to Steve Lazarus (Florida Institute of Technology) for use in his NPOESS product development activity.
  
  
• SST composites for Florida - A compositing technique has been developed for MODIS SST (either EOS or in-house MSFC product) to provide consistent high resolution spatial coverage of SSTs surrounding Florida. The approach will be utilized in the data assimilation study jointly conducted by SPoRT and Steve Lazarus (FIT) and to provide a unified product for Florida NWSFOs.

AMSR-E Products
• Software tools have been developed in McIDAS for the analysis and display of AMSR-E data products (rain rate, SST, and wind speed) in order to support their distribution to the Florida NWSWOs as part of the current activity to transition SPoRT products to support coastal weather forecasting activities at several NWS offices in Florida and Alabama.

Regional Modeling and Data Assimilation:

• AIRS Profile Assimilation - A case study (Jan 14-15, 2004) has been identified to assess the impact of assimilating AIRS Version 4.0 temperature and moisture profiles over the western Pacific Ocean into the WRF modeling system. The case is characterized by a synoptic-scale cyclogenesis event over the Southwestern US. A large CONUS domain 360 by 200 at 30km resolution will be used. The experimental design contains two assimilation cycles that allow two swaths of AIRS profiles to be assimilated prior to a planned 48h forecast. AIRS soundings are assimilated in the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS). Analysis of results will be focused on state variable verification and precipitation. Impacts of the AIRS on the initial analysis will also be closely examined.
  
  
• AIRS Radiance AssimilationA case study was used to conduct verification of the RTM simulation; to conduct an investigation of the errors associated with the RTM simulation when using MM5 forecast fields as input; and to conduct an adjoint radiance sensitivity study intended for use during channel selection. A journal paper was derived from M. Carrier’s Master’s thesis work which investigates the errors in the MM5 simulation of the project test case.
  
  
• MODIS SST Assimilation - A modeling project designed to investigate the impact of high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system covering the coastal zones of Florida and Northern Gulf of Mexico is underway. The scientific hypothesis to be tested is: Accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing (i.e., the specification of localized SST gradients and anomalies) within the WRF prediction system will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the sensible weather elements (i.e., low-level horizontal transport, temperature trends, clouds, and precipitation) associated with them. The region of study includes the coastal zones of Florida and Northern Gulf of Mexico. Work over the past three months has focused on establishing and testing the assimilation/forecast configuration with ADAS and WRF. The model domain is 1000 km x 1000 km at 2 km resolution and is centered over central Florida. The period of study is May 2004. Parallel model runs will be conducted twice daily. A control using the NCEP Real Time Global SST analysis available in the NCEP suite of models and an experiment using the MODIS SST composite available at 1 km resolution. The results of this work will be used to identify potential model improvements that will be reported back to the relevant WRF development groups. The project has the potential to augment the local modeling systems currently employed over select regions of the Florida peninsula by the Melbourne (MLB) NWSFO and the Space Flight Meteorology Group (SMG).

Nowcasting:

• North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array - An algorithm has been developed to discriminate between lightning and noise sources for the LMA data. This will allow us to filter out the non-lightning sources. Another algorithm was written to identify lightning clusters (cells), so that they can be tracked and trends in the lightning rates quantified. Severe weather/lightning results from case study analyses completed by the Huntsville and Birmingham National Weather Service Offices can be found in the publications link given above.
  
  
• Convective initiation nowcasting involving the development of a southeastern U.S. domain for this analysis (see http://nsstc.uah.edu/johnm/ci_nowcasting_main.html) and a sub-set Alabama-centered region for the NWS. These analyses are developed in real-time (every 15- to 30-min), with HDF files being automatically made available to NWS HUN. They have (via Jason Burks) implemented a test product into AWIPS as of about Christmas. We have discussed training sessions for NWS Hun on the use of these forecasts, with a training goal being late spring. Use of the 3.9 um channel (in relation to other channels) is showing promise for a nighttime signal of developing convection.

NASA/NWS Collaborative Activities

• January 23, 2005- An unusual lake effect snow band pushed south from Lake Michigan all the way into the TN Valley. The MODIS satellite imagery provided by SPoRT aided the forecasters in depicting the areal coverage of the snow band and assisted in their forecasts updates. WFO HUN forecaster Mike Richter completed an event review discussing the role of the MODIS data in forecasting and nowcasting this challenging lake-effect snow event.
  
  
• January 25, 2005 – WFO HUN held the first of several meetings to discuss the development of several new lightning products to be utilized by the emergency management community. These products will integrate data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the north Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) to provide the EMAs with a series of lighting risk assessment products. These graphical products and dissemination specifics are still in the formative stages.
  
  
• A significant severe weather event (mainly large hail) occurred across the HUN CWA on February 12th. During this event, 51 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for the Huntsville CWA. The LMA data was used extensively by the forecasters for warning decision making on this day with one forecaster stating that it really added additional lead time in seeing where the building reflectivity cores and hail potential was maximized.
  
  
• February 18, 2005 – Forecaster Priscilla Bridenstine and SOO Chris Darden led a teletraining session titled “Total Lightning Information into National Weather Service Operations". The teletraining session was held as part of the Southern Region Teletraining Series, and the response was quite positive. All totaled, there were over 10 NWS forecast offices who attended the teletraining along with representatives from SMG in Houston and representatives from Southwest Airlines in Dallas. In addition, newly selected Southern Region SSD chief Rusty Billingsley also called in from the National Fire Interagency Center in Boise Idaho. The training session lasted approximately 90 minutes and consisted of an overview of the north Alabama LMA system, a discussion of the collaborative activities ongoing between NASA and the NWS, specific case studies and applications of the LMA data in NWS operations, and a discussion of future activities. As mentioned earlier, the training was evidently quite popular and interesting as HUN SOO received several emails after the training inquiring about the LMA data and the future geostationary lightning mapper. Future plans include recording a similar presentation with audio included for download and playback.
  
  
• March 2005 - The new convective initiation (CI) fields are now flowing into AWIPS; evaluation by Jason Burks via real time ingest. We are currently preparing for training so the products may be viewed by forecasters by May or June. A local television affiliate, Channel 31, also expressed interest in these products.
  
  
• March 2005 - WFO HUN SOO Chris Darden met with NSSL research scientist Kevin Scharfenberg to discuss the transfer of total lightning data from a primarily research oriented tool to an operational dataset. The NWS offices in Oklahoma will soon have access to total lightning information from the Central Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), and they were interested in how we utilize the data in a warning decision making framework.